Big promises of peace leave the terrorists in place.
Remember when President Trump pronounced Gaza as the future Riviera of the Middle East?
Remember when the US-imposed ceasefire in Gaza of Oct. 10 promised the reconstruction of Gaza premised on the disarming of Hamas?
Remember — if only for the one week since it was signed — the US-brokered peace plan for Lebanon, based on the disarmament of Hezbollah?
For the prospects of President Donald Trump’s peace plan with Iran, check out his record. His previous peace plans have faltered on one point that required no special intuition or expertise to discern: the unwillingness of the US to do the dirty work that it conveniently blamed Israel for overdoing. Namely, the disarmament of terrorists.
That’s the key to the failure in Gaza. This will be the key to failure in Lebanon, barring some new approach to disarming Hezbollah. And that is the key to the administration’s failure in Iran, where President Trump and Vice President Vance think that they will negotiate an end to Iran’s nuclear program and assets.
“Sixty days.” If the deadline that Trump announced as the framework for completing the negotiation for the end of Iran’s nuclear program and assets were not so serious, it would be laughable. Check it out: How many of those 60 days have already passed? Not one of them has been devoted to negotiations on the nuclear issue. This is entirely predictable, given two realities: Iran’s artful stringing out of negotiations, and this administration’s gullibility, thinking it, and it alone, will change Iran’s terrorist stripes.
Had the US actually been able and willing to change terrorist stripes, it already would have happened in Gaza. Repeatedly, the US announced that Hamas agreed, under the Oct. 10, 2025 ceasefire, to disarm. Repeatedly, Gaza denies it. Stalemate. The exact same scenario is playing out in the ceasefire with Iran. An Iranian complaint here. An Iranian drone there. An agreement, maybe, to agree on when to negotiate; together with a complaint about American behavior that pushes off the agreement, maybe, to agree on when to negotiate.
What will result from this? It’s evident in Gaza. Israel cannot live with a terrorist organization dedicated to Israel’s destruction, so Israel takes out Hamas terrorists; on a smaller scale than before Oct. 10, to be sure. But the bottom line is that there is no reconstruction in Gaza because the military question has been pushed aside by the Trump administration, but cannot be pushed aside by Israel.
Transpose to Iran. It retains ballistic missiles. Perhaps you saw the picture in the IJN of June 12 of one of those missile’s warheads. It is about five times the height of the human being standing beside it. Which means: Israel cannot tolerate an Iran that retains ballistic missiles, given that Iran manufactures and uses them only for offensive purposes. Which means: Just as Trump’s ceasefire in Gaza did not bring peace or end the terrorism there, his ceasefire in Iran will not bring peace or end Israel’s need to pursue Iran militarily.
In a war in which Iran lost tons (literally) of military assets, but not all of them, the Trump administration handed Iran a victory — de facto control over the Strait of Hormuz, retention of its remaining missiles and the capacity to manufacture more (albeit perhaps on a reduced scale), and sanctions relief — when the US had Iran on the ropes. For the prospects for peace with Iran now, look to Gaza.
© IJN 2026