Hey Israel, just touching base: How’s everything going with you?
It’s a fair question as the Jewish state observed Yom Ha’atzmaut — its 73rd anniversary as an independent state — this week.
As Israel begins to emerge from the long dark shadow of the coronavirus pandemic, in the wake of yet another inconclusive political election, as tensions grow with its nemesis Iran and sparkling new peace accords take root, there is no shortage of pressing issues facing Israel at the moment.
Yet those who don’t live there, including many American Jews, might be forgiven if Israel has not held the number one spot on their list of personal concerns, at least in recent months. America has undergone, and is still undergoing, its own sustained pandemic ordeal — not to mention such challenges as political turmoil, mass shootings and racial tensions.
As some of these clouds begin to disperse, it’s time to check in on how the Jewish state is doing, a “State of the State of Israel,” so to speak.
The Intermountain Jewish News reached out last week to Dr. Shaul Gabbay, a Denverite who spends a great deal of time thinking, writing and speaking about his native Israel and the region in which it resides.
A scholar and media consultant on Middle Eastern and international issues, Gabbay today runs the Global Research Institute Posner Center for International Development, in which capacity he primarily serves as an advisor and provider of expert testimony for immigration attorneys, often representing clients from the Muslim world.
He was executive director of DU’s Institute for the Study of Israel in the Middle East for a decade and was a senior scholar in that university’s Josef Korbel School of International Studies for five years.
Gabbay’s list of published books and academic papers is impressive, as is his record of visiting professorships. He was educated at Bar-Ilan University, Tel Aviv University, Columbia University (where he earned his PhD in sociology in 1995) and the University of Chicago where he did post-doctoral studies.
At the risk of giving too much away, Gabbay’s forecast for Israel is mostly sunny.
IJN: Are you worried about Israel’s current political stalemate, as illustrated by its repeated inconclusive elections?
Gabbay: For anyone worried about any aspect of Israeli society, including its politics, I suggest they consider the monumental challenges Israeli society has overcome in its 73 years as a sovereign nation and consider how each test to its durability has consistently played out to the best — oftentimes unforeseen — outcome.
Israeli society is strong and resilient for a number of reasons.
Most important of these is the phenomenon whereby divisions within its society cross several societal dimensions at the same time, meaning there is not one dividing aspect on which all parts of the society fall to one side or the other.
For example, in Israel you can be poor, Ashkenazi, educated, and support the political right, exactly as you can be wealthy, Mizrachi, living in a settlement in the territories, and support the political left. There are many permutations of this phenomenon, including the significant difference of being Jewish or Arab.
This vast diversity of backgrounds and opinions blends to create a healthy, opinionated, sometimes heatedly argumentative culture with almost infinite ad hoc interests and opinions. At the same time, it is a strong, healthy society which serves as a light to the nations in many beautiful shades, colors, perspectives and combinations.
I have no doubt that Israeli society will find the way and system to elect a functioning administration.
As to the new possibilities emanating from the latest election results of an Arab party participating in a governing coalition, or the formation of a new coalition dependent on Arab party support, I am very proud and glad that Israeli society and politics has matured to the level whereby 20% of Israeli citizens may finally have political representation.
Arab Israelis face unique and increasing challenges within their own society that could be better resolved if they were included at the highest echelon of governing. I believe this outcome would be much better than maintaining the 73-year status quo that keeps Arab Israelis as second-class citizens and has led to growing internal animosity and frustration.
To conclude: No! I am not at all worried about the stalemate!
What are your predictions for the likely configuration of the next Israeli government?
Benjamin Netanyahu is a fearless politician who has proven he will do anything to retain power and maintain his role as prime minister. However, at present I do not see a better leader for Israel and the Jewish people emerging from the current spectrum of political personalities.
Netanyahu’s exceptional charisma, experience, commitment to the Jewish cause, combined with his skills as a political virtuoso, and as a leader who can and did take on the US president in his own House and Senate when they disagreed about policies vis-à-vis Iran, have combined to make his continued leadership nearly inevitable.
Israeli voters handed an electoral advantage to the right in the most recent election. While there are some individuals on the right who wish to see Netanyahu replaced, his Likud party is by far the largest party of the right, and I do not see an alternative to his leadership within their ranks.
In the short run at least, I would predict some combination of political support in the Knesset for a right-leaning government, possibly supported by an Arab party, headed by Netanyahu.
At this juncture I believe a left-leaning government coalition is unlikely to emerge. If it does, I suspect it will be a very weak, divided and dysfunctional.
Another potential scenario is the construction of a right-wing coalition that does not include Netanyahu.
This outcome could only happen with his full consent.
Additionally, the party would need to pay him homage by appointing him to another significant role such as the Israeli presidency, which most likely would need to include a special resolution and solution in the Knesset for his many legal predicaments.
What are the potential ramifications of the simmering conflict between Israel’s haredi and secular populations?
This is indeed the most critical divide in the Israeli society as it is remains an unresolved clash of inherent values and normative paradigms.
On the one hand, for haredi persons, life is about Hashem, Torah and the word of Jewish normative prescriptions.
On the other hand, for a secular Jew, everything in life should be based on freedom of choice.
For a haredi Jew, the fact that there are secular Jews who do not adhere by Jewish norms affects their own fundamental belief and life (Klal Israel). For example, haredi Jews believe that non-observing Jews who do not keep Shabbat delay the coming of Mashiach.
It is therefore incumbent on a haredi to do everything possible he or she can, including the use of political force, to make the secular Jew adhere to Torah prescriptions.
An example of this is the act of driving a car on Shabbat, which haredi Jews view as igniting a fire contrary to Hashem’s clear words in the Torah that cite: “You shall not kindle fire in any of your dwellings on the Sabbath day” (Exodus 35:1-3). Haredi Jews support a law to force all Jews in the country to forego driving on the Sabbath and public transportation.
For a secular Jew living in a democracy, the fundamental premise is live and let live. No other can or should tell them how to live his or her life under the law.
This incredibly challenging juxtaposition of world views and beliefs is limitless in the potential number of possible conflicts it creates inside the Jewish state. I believe this scenario will continue to fester for the foreseeable future.
In the absence of a constitution in Israel, which has not been written in order to avoid opening the proverbial “Pandora’s Box” regarding the definition of “who is a Jew,” coexistence in Israel between haredi and secular Jews will continue to be based on the law.
The real democratic society emanating from the basic fundamental democratic values which were prescribed by the Torah is also the common denominator between haredi and secular Jews in Israel.
Ultimately, this struggle will be the most important challenge Israeli society will face in the future, though not likely in the near future.
What are your feelings about Benjamin Netanyahu’s corruption trial?
As the saying goes, “Prophecy was given to fools, and no one but the prosecution has all the detailed evidence of the case.” Nevertheless, here is my perspective on this issue.
First, this is a very sad moment for an incredibly able Jewish leader, and an extremely sad moment for Israel and the Jewish people.
These corruption charges against Netanyahu, and the trial itself, present a serious threat to what has been an otherwise astonishing political career of the longest-standing Israeli leader and prime minister.
I predict the trial will end with a plea bargain. The Israeli public, along with Netanyahu and his defense team, are becoming far more aware of the clarity and strength of the evidence against him in these current charges.
Additionally, we can learn from another earlier legal predicament the Netanyahu family was involved with, and the way it ended. This may inform observers and predict the most likely outcome in this case as well.
When the prime minister’s wife, Sara Netanyahu, faced legal challenges with far less at stake than what the prime minister now faces, she chose a plea bargain agreement in which a fraud charge was reduced to a lesser offense. She was sentenced to pay the state the equivalent of $12,490 in reimbursement, and a $2,775 fine, rather than risk paying close to $100,000 if she were found guilty.
Benjamin Netanyahu is facing a much larger, and potentially devastating personal and professional outcome. In his case the stakes are much higher, of course.
If found guilty, Prime Minister Netanyahu is most likely facing imprisonment. It is, therefore, my opinion that Netanyahu will not take such a risk and most likely will seek a plea bargain as Sara did, which would likely be accompanied with some clever spin.
If that is in indeed the outcome of this trial, it will come at a small political cost. Indeed, such a result would stand in stark contrast to Netanyahu’s continued and consistent insistence that, “There will be nothing, because there was nothing.”
He will easily overcome such a discrepancy, particularly given the outsized strength of “King Bibi’s” devout followers.
The more evidence presented against Netanyahu, and the more he and his defense team believe a guilty outcome may be coming — the higher the chances they will propose a plea bargain.
This, of course, depends on the prosecution’s concession. Unless it presents evidence that the prime minister actually accepted a bribe (as was the case with Mr. Olmert), I believe the prosecution will consent to a plea bargain.
Such an outcome, I believe, would be the most desirable for Israel and the Jewish people overall and bring an end to what has been a sad and damaging saga.
What is the likely impact of Joe Biden’s presidency on US-Israel relations?
Biden is a seasoned politician who holds great respect and admiration for the Jewish people, the state of Israel, and for Benjamin Netanyahu in particular.
History has proven repeatedly that the American president, and the president alone, shapes American foreign policy, and he or she has the last word.
This has repeatedly been the case for policy toward Israel in particular.
All American presidents have understood the strong and critical bond and commitment the US has with the Jewish people and the Jewish state in addition to their awareness of Israel’s critically important position as the only real democracy in the Middle East.
Joe Biden is now president and no longer acting as vice-president to the occasionally challenging stance of President Obama toward Israel.
The challenges Israel faced from the cold shoulder it received from President Obama (particularly about the Iran’s nuclear strength) were well studied by the current administration and very likely will not be repeated.
From what we are witnessing since Biden took office, the relationship and cooperation with Israel have become stronger.
At the symbolic (though extremely visible and important) level, Biden has kept the American embassy in Jerusalem. The recent approval of aid-release to the Palestinians occurred with discussions with and a nod from Israel, which serves Israeli interest at the moment.
I believe these early examples of cooperation suggest that when difference of opinions arise regarding how best to handle Iran, it will be preceded with meaningful and respectful private discussions with the Israeli administration, and more importantly, through the long-standing professional ties between the security forces of both countries.
As friends, Israel and the US sometimes have conflicting opinions and may see things very differently. However, the deep respect, trust, and public acknowledgement both Biden and Vice President Harris have shown for Israel as their most important ally and friend in the Middle East will continue to serve as a fundamental, positive and productive platform for their bilateral relationship.
How would you grade Israel’s struggle with the coronavirus?
I would give Israel an A+ in this area. Much earlier than the rest of the world awoke to comprehend and internalize the magnitude of the COVID-19 challenge and took action.
Mossad agents scrambled to secure supplies of masks, gloves, testing kits and critical-breathing machines.
Very early on, Israeli leadership was able to secure vital commitments for vaccine supplies from Pfizer Bio-Tec and Moderna.
Moreover, Israel invested heavily in the fast development and testing of its own in-house vaccine.
The results are clear and unprecedented: Israel has become a world leader in COVID-19 vaccination. To date, Israel has administered the most COVID-19 vaccine doses per capita in the world, fully vaccinating 60% of the population.
This compares with a 7% vaccination rate in the UK, and 19% in the US.
This is truly remarkable progress that frees Israel’s population to return to normalcy. Israel is now the most sought after nation in providing research and statistical data on COVID-19 and is acting as a source of vaccines for several countries, including many in the Arab and Muslim world.
What do you expect will be the next phases of the apparently escalating, Israel-Iran conflict?
This is a daunting challenge, where we are dealing with a totalitarian and corrupt regime that has proven itself to be stubborn and which is playing the rest of the world according to a Persian bazar par excellence negotiating textbook.
Israel and Iran are de facto engaged in a physical war.
There are two fronts for this war: stopping Iran’s building toward its nuclear capability, and Israel’s efforts to keep Iran and its proxies physically away from the Israeli border.
Israel is winning the second front in Syria and Lebanon, having successfully carried out attacks against those who would cause harm.
The first and more crucial front is playing out right in front of us, and it is unclear what the final results will be.
Of course, it is Israel’s crucial interest to do all that it can to avoid a nuclear-armed Iran.
Yet, this is also in the interest of the entire free world; consider the intractable situation the world faces with North Korea as a nuclear menace and threat to world stability.
Given the world powers’ position on a nuclear-armed Iran, I believe that there will be a return to the nuclear agreement, possibly with some modifications. Both the Biden administration and European countries are interested in reaching a binding agreement.
The four years of the Trump administration’s extreme pressure on Iran have resulted in a dual problem: the acceleration of Iranian progress in nuclear development and a limited monitoring of their pace.
Iran is now stronger, backed by Russia as well as a formal commitment on a comprehensive 25-year strategic partnership with China.
A new agreement (or altered one) may prescribe a superior system of monitoring Iran’s nuclear advancements and may lengthen the agreement period beyond the original timeframe.
However, despite this possibility of an improved agreement, I also believe it is still the clear interest of the world to stop Iran from obtaining nuclear capability altogether.
I do, however, suspect Americans and other signatories may choose to adopt a “blind-eye” position to an ad-hoc cyber or physical attack on Iranian nuclear capabilities and interests, one that will be carried out by an “anonymous” party.
Will the Abraham Accords impact the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, or will the “peace process” remain in limbo?
Together with the board of directors led by the late Robert E. Loup, I have personally invested a decade of my career as a professor and executive director of the Denver University Institute for the Study of Israel in the Middle East on these efforts.
I am a firm believer that one day there will be peace between Israel and a newly established Palestinian state. I know that peace is a critical interest of those who wish for a stable Jewish democracy.
This is first and foremost because of the demographic challenges posed by a rapidly growing Palestinian population, but also for many other reasons. However, this outcome appeared in the early 2000s and continues to be the case now even more, an elusive and challenging goal.
We need to remember that in any scenario, it is going to be the Israeli people who will be the party agreeing and granting such peace.
Israel is the superpower in the Middle East and the only party who will decide on a peace agreement which will also include territorial concessions.
As is clear from the last election results, as well as the preceding ones, Israeli society today supports the right (nonconsensual) ideology. The majority of Israelis today do not see an urgency for a peace agreements with Palestinians and the Israeli leadership does not have the interest and motivation in entering a meaningful negotiations process aimed at real peace.
Moreover, despite the stalemate in Israeli-Palestinian peace efforts, numerous other peace agreement with key Arab countries have been signed.
Another challenging roadblock is the current Palestinian social and political divide. In the recent past, now and in the near future, I do not see a united Palestinian society and leadership able to commit to and implement a peace agreement.
Upcoming Palestinian elections, the first they have held in 20 years, may change that reality. If not, unfortunately there will not be a willing partner able to bring its population along on the Palestinian side.
The situation remains that without a motivated Israeli side, combined with the absence of a united Palestinian side, we will most likely not see meaningful progress towards an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement.
I do believe, however, that at the people-to-people level, ties between Israelis and Palestinians are slowly strengthening over time, and we will witness increasing levels of cooperation at the business and public-environmental sectors directly and indirectly vis-a-vis other Arab and Muslim dominated economic markets.
How worrisome do you rate these challenges as Israel marks its 73rd year as an independent nation?
Over more than three decades, as I annually assess Israel’s position, I reach the same crystal-clear conclusion: Israel has never been in a better place.
This is particularly true today and with G-d’s help it will continue in the coming years. Economically, militarily and politically, Israel has simply never been in a better place. Israel is a successful example as it holds an important position among the nations for its achievements and contributions to the world.
If I had to point to a challenge, I will remind readers that along the southern and northern borders of Israel, namely Gaza and Lebanon, there are thousands — and some estimations cite hundreds of thousands — of missiles directed to the heart of Israel.
The networks of the terrorist groups Hamas and Hezbollah are piling up an enormous arsenal aimed at carrying out their ideology of destroying the Jewish state.
While far from being an existential treat to Israel, they are real in their potential of creating real havoc to Israelis.
For even the most sophisticated Iron Dome-like technology does not completely seal and protect Israelis from a simultaneous attack of thousands of missiles.
However, despite this threat, it is far weaker than the existential threats Israel has successfully dealt with in its history.
Despite numerous sensitive and challenging periods, today Israel enjoys a longstanding and cooperative — and the warmest in its history — peace with Egypt, the largest and strongest bordering country.
Israel also benefits from an enduring peace with its bordering neighbor, the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.
Additionally, in the past year alone, Israel has signed several important peace agreements with other Arab countries, and informally benefits from de facto peace with numerous others in the Arab and Muslim world.
Israel is a beacon of success, and its citizens are among the happiest of any country in the world.
A little country, geographically the size of the state of New Jersey, so small it could fit inside the State of Colorado 13.5 times, with a population that represents less than 1.5% of the world, has taken its place as a leader among the leadership of the world in less than three-quarters of a century.
Israel was established on two main principles: providing security for the Jewish people, and the successful absorption of the Jewish diaspora. As we celebrate the 73rd year of the establishment of the Jewish state, the Jewish people in Israel and around the world were never before in the history of modern times safer or more secure.
Consistently each year, tens of thousands of Jews from around the world (even in 2020 — a pandemic year) continue to make aliyah to Israel.
The Jewish population in Israel has now surpassed the number of Jews who were murdered in the Holocaust.
Further, it is estimated that this year the number of Jews living in Israel will surpass the total number of Jews living outside Israel.
At this moment in history, when the miracle of the return of the Jewish people to our own free state following thousands of years of exile is 73 years alive, we, the Jewish people, have so much to be happy and proud about.
Am Israel Chai. Chai chai ve-Kayam.
Chris Leppek may be reached at IJNEWS@aol.com.
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